Comparative Effectiveness of Natalizumab, Fingolimod, and Injectable Therapies in Pediatric-Onset Multiple Sclerosis: A Registry-Based Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patients with pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) typically experience higher levels of inflammation with more frequent relapses, and though patients with POMS usually recover from relapses better than adults, patients with POMS reach irreversible disability at a younger age than adult-onset patients. There have been few randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in patients with POMS, and most available data are based on observational studies of off-label use of DMTs approved for adults. We assessed the effectiveness of natalizumab compared with fingolimod using injectable platform therapies as a reference in pediatric patients in the global MSBase registry. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients with POMS who initiated treatment with an injectable DMT, natalizumab, or fingolimod between January 1, 2006, and May 3, 2021. Patients were matched using inverse probability treatment weighting. The primary outcome was time to first relapse from index therapy initiation. Secondary study outcomes included annualized relapse rate; proportions of relapse-free patients at 1, 2, and 5 years; time to treatment discontinuation; and times to 24-week confirmed disability worsening and confirmed disability improvement. RESULTS: A total of 1,218 patients with POMS were included in this analysis. Patients treated with fingolimod had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated with injectable DMTs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.83; p = 0.008). After adjustment for prior DMT experience in the unmatched sample, patients treated with natalizumab had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated either with injectable DMTs (HR, 0.15; 95% CI 0.07-0.31; p < 0.001) or fingolimod (HR, 0.37; 95% CI 0.14-1.00; p = 0.049). The adjusted secondary study outcomes were generally consistent with the primary outcome or with previous observations. The findings in the inverse probability treatment weighting-adjusted patient populations were confirmed in multiple sensitivity analyses. DISCUSSION: Our analyses of relapse risk suggest that natalizumab is more effective than fingolimod in the control of relapses in this population with high rates of new inflammatory activity, consistent with previous studies of natalizumab and fingolimod in adult-onset patients and POMS. In addition, both fingolimod and natalizumab were more effective than first-line injectable therapies. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that patients with POMS treated with natalizumab had a lower risk of relapse than those with fingolimod.

Emulating randomised clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with non-randomised real-world evidence: an application using data from the MSBase Registry.

BACKGROUND: To mimic as closely as possible a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and calibrate the real-world evidence (RWE) studies against a known treatment effect would be helpful to understand if RWE can support causal conclusions in selected circumstances. The aim was to emulate the TRANSFORMS trial comparing Fingolimod (FTY) versus intramuscular interferon ß-1a (IFN) using observational data. METHODS: We extracted from the MSBase registry all the patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) collected in the period 2011-2021 who received IFN or FTY (0.5 mg) and with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria of the TRANSFORMS RCT. The primary endpoint was the annualised relapse rate (ARR) over 12 months. Patients were 1:1 propensity-score (PS) matched. Relapse-rate ratio (RR) was calculated by mean of a negative binomial regression. RESULTS: A total of 4376 patients with RRMS (1140 in IFN and 3236 in FTY) were selected. After PS, 856 patients in each group were matched. The ARR was 0.45 in IFN and 0.25 in FTY with a significant difference between the two groups (RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.68; p<0.001). The result of the emulation was very similar and fell within the 95% CI of that observed in the RCT (RR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.64; p<0.001) with a standardised difference of 0.66 (p=0.51). CONCLUSIONS: By applying the same inclusion and exclusion criteria used in the RCT and employing appropriate methodology, we successfully replicated the RCT results with only minor discrepancies. Also, even if the confounding bias cannot be fully eliminated, conducting a rigorous target trial emulation could still yield valuable insights for comparative effectiveness research.

Barriers to accessing multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapies in the Middle East and North Africa region: A regional survey-based study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) management varies markedly between different countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on the availability and accessibility of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accessibility to DMTs in each MENA country, identify barriers to treatment and make recommendations for improved access to DMTs across the region. METHODS: This is a descriptive, survey-based study whereby we extracted data collected, between October 2019 and April 2020, for countries in the MENA region by the Multiple Sclerosis International Federation (MSIF) through their Atlas of MS survey. RESULTS: 16 out of 19 countries in the MENA region were included in this study. Sudan and Syria did not have any originator DMTs approved. Interferons were the most widely low-efficacy originator approved DMTs. Three countries did not have any high efficacy DMTs approved. Moreover, follow-on DMTs were approved in half (50%) of the countries. Cost of treatment was the most important barrier, reported in nearly half (47%) of the MENA countries. CONCLUSION: Although most MENA countries have access to DMTs, more than half of countries report problems with treatment continuation, highlighting the need for a targeted regional strategy to address the variations in access to MS treatments.

A plain language summary on assessing the long-term effectiveness of cladribine tablets in people living with relapsing multiple sclerosis: The CLASSIC-MS study.

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: Previous studies have shown that people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) treated with cladribine tablets have fewer relapses (where new symptoms occur or existing symptoms get worse for 24 hours or more) and delayed disability progression (slowing down of the disease getting worse). The CLASSIC-MS study looked at the long-term effectiveness of treatment with cladribine tablets in people living with MS who had taken part in the original CLARITY and CLARITY Extension clinical studies. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS?: Results showed that people treated with cladribine tablets maintained their mobility (the ability to move freely) for longer and experienced other positive effects long after their treatment ended, including being less likely to need further treatment for their MS. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: The results obtained from CLASSIC-MS show that the benefits of taking cladribine tablets carry on even when patients stop taking the treatment.

Differential diagnosis of suspected multiple sclerosis: an updated consensus approach.

Accurate diagnosis of multiple sclerosis requires careful attention to its differential diagnosis-many disorders can mimic the clinical manifestations and paraclinical findings of this disease. A collaborative effort, organised by The International Advisory Committee on Clinical Trials in Multiple Sclerosis in 2008, provided diagnostic approaches to multiple sclerosis and identified clinical and paraclinical findings (so-called red flags) suggestive of alternative diagnoses. Since then, knowledge of disorders in the differential diagnosis of multiple sclerosis has expanded substantially. For example, CNS inflammatory disorders that present with syndromes overlapping with multiple sclerosis can increasingly be distinguished from multiple sclerosis with the aid of specific clinical, MRI, and laboratory findings; studies of people misdiagnosed with multiple sclerosis have also provided insights into clinical presentations for which extra caution is warranted. Considering these data, an update to the recommended diagnostic approaches to common clinical presentations and key clinical and paraclinical red flags is warranted to inform the contemporary clinical evaluation of patients with suspected multiple sclerosis.

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

A plain language summary on the effectiveness of cladribine tablets compared with other oral treatments for multiple sclerosis: results from the MSBase registry.

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: Patient registries contain anonymous data from people who share the same medical condition. The MSBase registry contains information from over 80,000 people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) across 41 countries. Using information from the MSBase registry, the GLIMPSE (Generating Learnings In MultiPle SclErosis) study looked at real-life outcomes in 3475 people living with MS who were treated with cladribine tablets (Mavenclad®) compared with other oral treatments. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS?: Results showed that people treated with cladribine tablets stayed on treatment for longer than other treatments given by mouth. They also had fewer relapses (also called flare ups of symptoms) than people who received a different oral treatment for their MS. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: The results provide evidence that, compared with other oral treatments for MS, cladribine tablets are an effective medicine for people living with MS.

Comparison Between Dimethyl Fumarate, Fingolimod, and Ocrelizumab After Natalizumab Cessation.

Importance: Natalizumab cessation is associated with a risk of rebound disease activity. It is important to identify the optimal switch disease-modifying therapy strategy after natalizumab to limit the risk of severe relapses. Objectives: To compare the effectiveness and persistence of dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, and ocrelizumab among patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who discontinued natalizumab. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this observational cohort study, patient data were collected from the MSBase registry between June 15, 2010, and July 6, 2021. The median follow-up was 2.7 years. This was a multicenter study that included patients with RRMS who had used natalizumab for 6 months or longer and then were switched to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab within 3 months after natalizumab discontinuation. Patients without baseline data were excluded from the analysis. Data were analyzed from May 24, 2022, to January 9, 2023. Exposures: Dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, and ocrelizumab. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were annualized relapse rate (ARR) and time to first relapse. Secondary outcomes were confirmed disability accumulation, disability improvement, and subsequent treatment discontinuation, with the comparisons for the first 2 limited to fingolimod and ocrelizumab due to the small number of patients taking dimethyl fumarate. The associations were analyzed after balancing covariates using an inverse probability of treatment weighting method. Results: Among 66 840 patients with RRMS, 1744 had used natalizumab for 6 months or longer and were switched to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab within 3 months of natalizumab discontinuation. After excluding 358 patients without baseline data, a total of 1386 patients (mean [SD] age, 41.3 [10.6] years; 990 female [71%]) switched to dimethyl fumarate (138 [9.9%]), fingolimod (823 [59.4%]), or ocrelizumab (425 [30.7%]) after natalizumab. The ARR for each medication was as follows: ocrelizumab, 0.06 (95% CI, 0.04-0.08); fingolimod, 0.26 (95% CI, 0.12-0.48); and dimethyl fumarate, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.12-0.56). The ARR ratio of fingolimod to ocrelizumab was 4.33 (95% CI, 3.12-6.01) and of dimethyl fumarate to ocrelizumab was 4.50 (95% CI, 2.89-7.03). Compared with ocrelizumab, the hazard ratio (HR) of time to first relapse was 4.02 (95% CI, 2.83-5.70) for fingolimod and 3.70 (95% CI, 2.35-5.84) for dimethyl fumarate. The HR of treatment discontinuation was 2.57 (95% CI, 1.74-3.80) for fingolimod and 4.26 (95% CI, 2.65-6.84) for dimethyl fumarate. Fingolimod use was associated with a 49% higher risk for disability accumulation compared with ocrelizumab. There was no significant difference in disability improvement rates between fingolimod and ocrelizumab. Conclusion and Relevance: Study results show that among patients with RRMS who switched from natalizumab to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab, ocrelizumab use was associated with the lowest ARR and discontinuation rates, and the longest time to first relapse.

Autoantibodies, clinical phenotypes and quality of life in Lebanese patients with myasthenia gravis.

Myasthenia gravis (MG) is a rare autoimmune disease that affects the neuromuscular junction. It is characterized by the production of heterogeneous autoantibodies that bind to the neuromuscular junction and alter neural transmission. Recently, more attention was given to MG-related antibodies and their clinical influence. In Lebanon, studies about MG are very rare. To date, there is still no research on the different autoantibodies developed by Lebanese MG patients. We conducted a study aimed at detecting the prevalence of different antibodies in a group of seventeen Lebanese patients with MG, and exploring their associations with clinical phenotypes and quality of life (QOL). MG antibody test in Lebanon is restricted only to two antibodies: acetylcholine receptor (anti-AChR) and muscle-specific kinase (anti-MUSK) antibodies. Results showed that 70.6% of patients were anti-AChR positive and all of them were anti-MUSK negative. Association between MG serological profiles, clinical outcomes and QOL was not significant. Together, current findings suggest that anti-MUSK antibody is not common and difference in antibody profile may not change the clinical phenotypes and QOL of MG Lebanese patients. In the future, it is recommended to check also for autoantibodies other than anti-AChR and anti-MUSK, which may reveal new antibody profiles and possible associations with clinical outcomes.

Long-term follow-up of patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis from the CLARITY/CLARITY Extension cohort of CLASSIC-MS: An ambispective study.

BACKGROUND: CLASSIC-MS evaluated the long-term efficacy of cladribine tablets in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis. OBJECTIVE: Report long-term mobility and disability beyond treatment courses received in CLARITY/CLARITY Extension. METHODS: This analysis represents CLASSIC-MS patients who participated in CLARITY with/without participation in CLARITY Extension, and received ⩾1 course of cladribine tablets or placebo (N = 435). Primary objective includes evaluation of long-term mobility (no wheelchair use in the 3 months prior to first visit in CLASSIC-MS and not bedridden at any time since last parent study dose (LPSD), i.e. Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score <7). Secondary objective includes long-term disability status (no use of an ambulatory device (EDSS < 6) at any time since LPSD). RESULTS: At CLASSIC-MS baseline, mean ± standard deviation EDSS score was 3.9 ± 2.1 and the median time since LPSD was 10.9 (range = 9.3-14.9) years. Cladribine tablets-exposed population: 90.6% (N = 394), including 160 patients who received a cumulative dose of 3.5 mg/kg over 2 years. Patients not using a wheelchair and not bedridden: exposed, 90.0%; unexposed, 77.8%. Patients with no use of an ambulatory device: exposed, 81.2%; unexposed, 75.6%. CONCLUSION: With a median 10.9 years' follow-up after CLARITY/CLARITY Extension, findings suggest the sustained long-term mobility and disability benefits of cladribine tablets.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Expert opinion on COVID-19 vaccines and cladribine tablets in MS: A plain language summary.

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: People with multiple sclerosis (shortened to MS) who are taking cladribine tablets may have concerns about whether they can be vaccinated against COVID-19. This summary details the findings from a previously published article, in which an international committee of 10 MS experts developed recommendations to answer some important questions about COVID-19 vaccines in people with MS (including relapsing-remitting or active secondary progressive disease) taking cladribine tablets. WHAT WERE THE RESULTS?: The committee identified 13 recommendations, which were all agreed upon by at least three-quarters (75%) of the 38 voting MS experts. Generally, they recommended that people with MS taking cladribine tablets should be vaccinated for COVID-19 as soon as possible, because the vaccine is thought to be both safe and effective, and vaccine responses were not likely to be affected by cladribine tablets. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: Overall, people with MS taking cladribine tablets should receive the COVID-19 vaccine to protect themselves, unless advised differently by their healthcare provider.

Expert opinion on the long-term use of cladribine tablets for multiple sclerosis: Systematic literature review of real-world evidence.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with cladribine tablets (CladT), an immune reconstitution therapy for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS), involves two short courses of treatment in Year 1 and Year 2. Most patients achieve sustained efficacy with CladT, but a small proportion may experience new disease activity (DA). Following completion of the indicated dose, physicians may have questions relating to the long-term management of these patients. Since the EU approval of CladT over 5 years ago, real-world evidence (RWE) is increasing and may provide some insights and guidance for clinical practice. We describe a systematic literature review (SLR) of RWE and provide expert opinions relating to six questions regarding the long-term use of CladT. METHODS: Pertinent clinical questions were developed by a steering committee (SC) of 14 international multiple sclerosis (MS) experts regarding breakthrough DA in Year 1, new DA after 2 years or more of treatment, long-term management of stable patients, and whether additional courses of CladT may be required or safe. An SLR was performed in EMBASE and PubMed using the population, intervention, comparators, outcomes, study design (PICOS) framework to identify relevant studies within the last 15 years. Searches of key congress proceedings for the last 2-3 years were also performed. Following review of the results and RWE, the SC drafted and agreed on expert opinion statements for each question. RESULTS: A total of 35 publications reporting RWE for CladT were included in this review. In the real world, breakthrough DA in Year 1 is of low incidence (1.1-21.9%) but can occur, particularly in patients switching from anti-lymphocyte trafficking agents. In most patients, this DA did not lead to treatment discontinuation. Reported rates of DA after the full therapeutic effect of CladT has been achieved (end of Year 2, 3 or 4) range from 12.0 to 18.7% in the few studies identified. No RWE was identified to support management decisions for stable patients in Year 5 or later. Views among the group were also diverse on this question and voting on expert opinion statements was required. Only two studies reported the administration of additional courses of CladT, but detailed safety outcomes were not provided. CONCLUSIONS: RWE for the long-term use of CladT in the treatment of RMS is increasing, however, gaps in knowledge remain. Where possible, the RWE identified through the SLR informed expert statements, but, where RWE is still lacking, these were based solely on experiences and opinion, providing some guidance on topics and questions that occur in daily clinical practice. More real-world studies with longer-term follow-up periods are needed and highly anticipated.

External validation of a clinical prediction model in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Timely initiation of disease modifying therapy is crucial for managing multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously published predictive model of individual treatment response using a non-overlapping cohort from the Middle East. METHODS: We interrogated the MSBase registry for patients who were not included in the initial model development. These patients had relapsing MS or clinically isolated syndrome, a recorded date of disease onset, disability and dates of disease modifying therapy, with sufficient follow-up pre- and post-baseline. Baseline was the visit at which a new disease modifying therapy was initiated, and which served as the start of the predicted period. The original models were used to translate clinical information into three principal components and to predict probability of relapses, disability worsening or improvement, conversion to secondary progressive MS and treatment discontinuation as well as changes in the area under disability-time curve (ΔAUC). Prediction accuracy was assessed using the criteria published previously. RESULTS: The models performed well for predicting the risk of disability worsening and improvement (accuracy: 81%-96%) and performed moderately well for predicting the risk of relapses (accuracy: 73%-91%). The predictions for ΔAUC and risk of treatment discontinuation were suboptimal (accuracy < 44%). Accuracy for predicting the risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS ranged from 50% to 98%. CONCLUSION: The previously published models are generalisable to patients with a broad range of baseline characteristics in different geographic regions.

Comparative effectiveness of cladribine tablets versus other oral disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis: Results from MSBase registry.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience. OBJECTIVES: Use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs. METHODS: Retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR). RESULTS: Cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts. CONCLUSION: Cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators.

Heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories in patients with secondary progressive MS: a latent class analysis from Big MS Data network.

BACKGROUND: Over the decades, several natural history studies on patients with primary (PPMS) or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) were reported from international registries. In PPMS, a consistent heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories was demonstrated. The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of patients with SPMS with similar longitudinal trajectories of disability over time. METHODS: All patients with MS collected within Big MS registries who received an SPMS diagnosis from physicians (cohort 1) or satisfied the Lorscheider criteria (cohort 2) were considered. Longitudinal Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were modelled by a latent class growth analysis (LCGA), using a non-linear function of time from the first EDSS visit in the range 3-4. RESULTS: A total of 3613 patients with SPMS were included in the cohort 1. LCGA detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=1297; 35.9%), a moderate (n=1936; 53.6%) and a severe (n=380; 10.5%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 6 was 12.1, 5.0 and 1.7 years, for the three groups, respectively; the probability to reach EDSS 6 at 8 years was 14.4%, 78.4% and 98.3%, respectively. Similar results were found among 7613 patients satisfying the Lorscheider criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to previous interpretations, patients with SPMS progress at greatly different rates. Our identification of distinct trajectories can guide better patient selection in future phase 3 SPMS clinical trials. Additionally, distinct trajectories could reflect heterogeneous pathological mechanisms of progression.

Predictors of treatment switching in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network.

Background: Treatment switching is a common challenge and opportunity in real-world clinical practice. Increasing diversity in disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) has generated interest in the identification of reliable and robust predictors of treatment switching across different countries, DMTs, and time periods. Objective: The objective of this retrospective, observational study was to identify independent predictors of treatment switching in a population of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network of national clinical registries, including the Italian MS registry, the OFSEP of France, the Danish MS registry, the Swedish national MS registry, and the international MSBase Registry. Methods: In this cohort study, we merged information on 269,822 treatment episodes in 110,326 patients from 1997 to 2018 from five clinical registries. Patients were included in the final pooled analysis set if they had initiated at least one DMT during the relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) stage. Patients not diagnosed with RRMS or RRMS patients not initiating DMT therapy during the RRMS phase were excluded from the analysis. The primary study outcome was treatment switching. A multilevel mixed-effects shared frailty time-to-event model was used to identify independent predictors of treatment switching. The contributing MS registry was included in the pooled analysis as a random effect. Results: Every one-point increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment start was associated with 1.08 times the rate of subsequent switching, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.08). Women were associated with 1.11 times the rate of switching relative to men (95% CI 1.08-1.14), whilst older age was also associated with an increased rate of treatment switching. DMTs started between 2007 and 2012 were associated with 2.48 times the rate of switching relative to DMTs that began between 1996 and 2006 (aHR 2.48; 95% CI 2.48-2.56). DMTs started from 2013 onwards were more likely to switch relative to the earlier treatment epoch (aHR 8.09; 95% CI 7.79-8.41; reference = 1996-2006). Conclusion: Switching between DMTs is associated with female sex, age, and disability at baseline and has increased in frequency considerably in recent years as more treatment options have become available. Consideration of a patient's individual risk and tolerance profile needs to be taken into account when selecting the most appropriate switch therapy from an expanding array of treatment choices.